Andrea fizzles; forecast models hint at holiday week systems

22-05-2019 12:05

Holiday heat wave

(Image credit: NWS-Tallahassee)

HOLIDAY HEATWAVE ON TRACK: The traditional start of the summer season is scheduled to start out with a bang on Friday as high pressure drives temperatures into the triple digit range in North Florida, the panhandle and possibly even Central Florida. The forecast high for Memorial Day in Orlando is 96 — a little cooler than areas to the north and west — but it won’t be ideal picnic weather. Let’s hope the theme parks are stocked up on sunscreen. In Miami, National Weather Service forecasters said Wednesday: “Easterly flow off the relatively cool/mild Atlantic may keep South Florida from being a part of what looks to be a heat wave to the north.”

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TROPICS WATCH: Subtropical Storm Andrea sputtered out southwest of Bermuda on Tuesday, after first being downgraded to a subtropical depression and then a remnant low. It was, as predicted, a short-lived storm and one that, as Jeff Masters mentioned in a Weather Underground post, probably wouldn’t have been picked up before the more sophisticated satellite era.

The National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook map is clear once again, nine days ahead of the start of hurricane season.

The GFS has been trying to spin up another system in the Atlantic Basin during the week after Memorial Day. First the system was depicted in the Caribbean, moving over Jamaica and Hispaniola, but Wednesday’s run showed a weak low scooting over the Yucatan and emerging in the Gulf of Mexico as a broad area of low pressure. The European (ECMWF) has never been on board with this, so we’ll have to see what happens.

However, the FV3-GFS, which is the next generation of NOAA’s GFS model, had a more disturbing scenario for the first weekend of June. Wednesday’s run showed a low forming west of Jamaica in the Caribbean next week, taking it up over the western tip of Cuba and then hooking it into South Florida as a deepening 991 mb system. It exits into the Atlantic somewhere around Palm Beach.

The next name on the Atlantic list is Barry.

In the Pacific, the low that’s been meandering off the coast of Mexico for several days had a 50 percent chance of development on Wednesday morning, “if the disturbance remains offshore,” NHC forecasters said. That storm, if it forms, would be named Alvin.

NOAA releases its hurricane forecast Thursday, and that’s one that gets a lot of media attention. NOAA always forecasts a range of storms and hurricanes, and with odds of El Niño up for the summer and fall, it will be interesting to see what NOAA’s bottom number looks like.

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