How every Premier League gameweek 26 fixture should have ended, according to statistics

11-02-2019 11:02

Manchester City striker Sergio Aguero may have hit a hat-trick against Chelsea in his team’s 6-0 victory at the Etihad Stadium but he also missed an absolute sitter.

Found at the back post, all the Argentinian had to do was slot home with Kepa Arrizabalaga towards the other side of his goal and no defender near him.

Yet in trying to control his effort and place it close to the near post he ended up rustling the side netting.

Sergio Aguero scored his second hat-trick in three games

It’s these moments when expected goals come in handy, according to the shot had a value of 0.46, so it wasn’t quite as likely as it seemed.

Still, City romped to a tremendous victory and even the statistics suggest 6-0 wasn’t flattering of Pep Guardiola’s side, suggesting the value of their shots was around 4.04 goals.

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But what about the rest of the weekend’s games? Do the results we got reflect what actually happened?

Find out below how every team performed compared to their expected goals in the 24th round of Premier League matches thanks to statistics from…

[boxout headline=”What is expected goals?”]

  • Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
  • Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
  • The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
  • The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.


Fulham vs Manchester United

Real result: 0-3
xG result: 2.18-2.11

Anthony Martial celebrates scoring for Manchester United against Fulham.

Crystal Palace vs West Ham United

Real result: 1-1
xG result: 2.47-1.74

Pablo Zabaleta and Wilfried Zaha battle at Selhurst Park.

Watford vs Everton

Real result: 1-0
xG result: 1.53-0.65

Andre Gray celebrates a rare goal this season for the Hornets.

Southampton vs Cardiff City

Real result: 1-2
xG result: 1.64-0.40

Joe Ralls can’t hide his glee at Kenneth Zohore’s winner.

Liverpool vs Bournemouth

Real result: 3-0
xG result: 2.53-0.39

Liverpool superstar Mohamed Salah celebrates against Bournemouth.

Huddersfield Town vs Arsenal

Real result: 1-2
xG result: 1.16-1.79

Alex Iwobi sees his shot saved by Jonas Lossl.

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Burnley

Real result: 1-3
xG result: 1.27-1.79

It was a controversial match between Brighton and Burnley.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Leicester City

Real result: 3-1
xG result: 1.21-2.76

Tottenham stars Christian Eriksen and Harry Winks were delighted during the win over Leicester.

Manchester City vs Chelsea

Real result: 6-0
xG result: 4.04-0.90

Raheem Sterling starred for Manchester City.