2019 Oscar Predictions

16 Feb 19
Breaking the 4th Wall

An annual analysis and comparison of 2019’s Oscar nominated movies, including spoiler free reviews of almost all of them, as well as their chances of winning. This is the fifth time I’ll be writing this article. Three times I was able to pull of the miraculous (if time consuming and frankly wasteful) feat of predicting […]

16 Feb 19
EW.com

Voting is underway for the 91st Academy Awards, the ceremony is just over a week away, and the drama is at a fever pitch. First, there was the Kevin Hart hosting controversy, then the flap over which nominees for Best Original Song would be performed, then questions about who would be presenting, and then the […]

16 Feb 19
GoldDerby
Arguably one of 2018’s best films was “The Favourite,” a period comedy-drama written by Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, and directed by Yorgos Lanthimos (“The Lobster,” “The Killing of a Sacred Deer”). It reaped 10 Academy Award nominations, including Best Picture, making it the most nominated film alongside Alfonso Cuarón’s “Roma.” But will the love for the movie translate into a Best Picture win? Set in early 18th century England, “The Favourite” chronicles Sarah Churchill (Rachel Weisz) and her distant cousin Abigail Hill’s (Emma Stone) tantalizing power games to one-up each other to be the chief adviser to the temperamental Queen Anne (Olivia Colman). What could have easily been your conventional stuffy period drama ended up being a juicy, refreshing take on power dynamics, gender roles and social hierarchy in 18th century Britain. Lanthimos’ directorial choices, as well as Davis and McNamara’s script, which blurs the lines between comedy and drama seamlessly with its witty, razor-sharp dialogue, shred all conventions and turn the genre on its head. While it’s entertaining to watch the dynamic between the three protagonists shift, it’s the deeply layered characters, especially Colman’s, that stand out. SEE 6 reasons Rachel Weisz can win the Best Supporting Actress Oscar However, the movie isn’t just well written and brilliantly directed. From the brilliant cinematography by Robbie Ryan, enhanced by the significant use of wide shots and fisheye lenses, to the sharp editing by Yorgos Mavropsaridis, to the brilliant ensemble cast led by the exquisite trio of actresses, “The Favourite” gives you everything you expect from a potential Best Picture Oscar winner. Critic Theo Schear (Film Threat) calls the movie “a work of art that embraces and embellishes all the joys of cinema while offering a more enjoyable and progressive revisionist history.“ John Bleasdale (CineVue) says, “The Favourite has ribaldry and intelligence to burn, a deliciously entertaining period piece that feels liberated by its period, rather than restrained and invigorates like a glass of wine thrown violently in your face.“ And Leonardo Goi (Film Stage) praises it for being “endlessly quotable and serendipitously timely“ and “a zany, piercing close-up on three women so replete with swagger as to reduce their male counterparts to disposable extras.” SEE Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara reveal the modern influences in ‘The Favourite’ “The Favourite” has taken home several important prizes, most recently seven BAFTA Awards, including Best British Film. With a membership overlap, these BAFTA wins could be good news for the movie on its way to the Oscars. The Oscars uses a preferential ballot to determine the Best Picture winner; voters have to rank their choices instead of choosing one single winner. The movie’s 10 bids demonstrate across-the-board support, which could increase its chances as all branches vote in the final round. That said, with a preferential ballot, a movie needs more than just a considerable number of first-place votes; it needs second- and third-place votes as well. “The Favourite”‘s style and storyline could end up being too weird and unconventional for some voters, placing it in the bottom half of their ballots. Plus, except for its Best British Film win at the BAFTAs, it has also not snatched the top prize at any televised award show yet: “Roma” took home Best Film at the Critics’ Choice Awards and BAFTAs; “Green Book” won the Golden Globe Award for Best Comedy/Musical; “Crazy Rich Asians” snatched Critics’ Choice for Best Comedy; it was snubbed for the ensemble award at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. According to our combined Oscar odds, “The Favourite” is in fourth place with odds of 7/1, behind “Roma,” “Green Book,” and “BlacKkKlansman,” but ahead of “A Star Is Born,” “Black Panther,” “Vice,” and “Bohemian Rhapsody.” PREDICT the Oscar winners now; change them until Feb. 24 Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own 2019 Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on Feb. 24. SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions
16 Feb 19
GoldDerby
Alice Felton and her best friend Fiona Crombie, the set decorator and production designer for “The Favourite,” have already won the BAFTA, Art Directors Guild and BIFA awards for their work on Yorgos Lanthimos‘ acclaimed historical drama. And they are the frontrunners to win Best Production Design at the Oscars on Feb. 24. Reflecting on all of this attention from awards bodies, Felton readily admits, “The relationship you get with the other nominees is my favorite part of everything.” As she explains, “we did the BAFTA sessions discussing movies and it was so lovely hearing them talk about their films and their process, so that’s been one of my highlights. It’s been fascinating!” For Felton, the recognition from her guild was beyond anything she could have hoped for. “I loved being there because I met so many great set decorators and production designers who I would never meet. It was a community of designers. It meant so much, that award, for designers to give it to us, it was really personal and really meant a lot that other designers cared for, loved and voted for our work on the film.” SEE Will the Oscars be a rerun of the BAFTAs? She and Crombie are proud of the way that they helped to develop the characters through their work. “Olivia Colman really loved this – when Abigail (Emma Stone) is more in charge and looking after her, the Queen’s room has sweet foods in. She was allergic to sugar but we put piles of sweet foods in her bedroom, almost as if Abigail was overfeeding her and sweetening her,” explains Felton. “Whereas when Sarah (Rachel Weisz) was looking after her, we put in fruit and healthy foods and oatcakes, because Sarah loves her and is trying to look after her, whereas Abigail is trying to make her feel good in the moment at the time, being more sickly – so we showed that with food.” And it didn’t stop there. You wouldn’t think that Excel would be play a part in staging this period piece but it did. “We also tracked the Queen’s emotional state with spreadsheets. If she was feeling sad and alone, we would have her bed unmade and mess up the room. And when she was feeling good, the room would be tidy, the bed would be made,” says Felton. “In the royal palace, you’d always have servants doing everything but we imagined that she’d be like ‘ get out, don’t come in, I want to be on my own.’ You have to give reasons for everything you do.” DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums Be sure to make your Oscar predictions so that Hollywood insiders can see how their films and performers are faring in our odds. You can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on February 24. And join in the fierce debate over the 2019 Oscars taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our movie forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news. [predictions-widget id=1202753616] SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions
16 Feb 19
Eurovision by Jaz

Knock knock, who’s there? It’s Saturday again, duh! When you’re living for the weekends like I do during national final season, it’s a blessing for this day of the week to come around so quickly. And boy, does it have a lot to love on this occasion. Here’s everything happening tonight:  Croatia Dora, final Estonia […]

16 Feb 19
GoldDerby
Don’t look for “The Favourite” to win at the WGA Awards on Sunday (Feb. 17). Only scripts written under the guild’s guidelines or those of several international partners are allowed to vie for these awards, which ruled out this Oscar frontrunner for Best Original Screenplay. That limited eligibility means that these rewards are not the most reliable barometer of the eventual Oscar nominees and winners. Indeed, in the past 10 years only 65 of the WGA nominees have numbered among the 100 screenplays that reaped Academy Awards bids. The original screenplay WGA nominees are: “Eighth Grade,” “Green Book,” “A Quiet Place,” “Roma” and “Vice.” The Oscar frontrunner, “The Favourite,” was ineligible with the WGA. The guild picks “Eighth Grade” and “A Quiet Place” didn’t make the grade with the writers branch of the academy, which rounded out the race with “First Reformed.” Without having to face off against “The Favourite” at the WGA, look for “Green Book” or “Vice” to win. The adapted screenplay WGA contenders are: “BlacKkKlansman,” “Black Panther,” “Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” “If Beale Street Could Talk” and “A Star Is Born.” All of these save “Black Panther” reaped Oscar bids; that was bounced by “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” from Oscar darlings Joel and Ethan Coen. Spike Lee and company are likely to win both awards for “BlacKkKlansman.” Last year was one of the better ones for the guild nominees as all five of the adapted screenplay contenders — “Call Me by Your Name,” “The Disaster Artist,” “Logan,” “Molly’s Game” and “Mudbound” — went on to compete at the Oscars. “Call Me by Your Name” won both races. Over on the original side, four of the WGA picks — “The Big Sick,” “Get Out,” “Lady Bird” and “The Shape of Water” — reaped Oscar bids. The fifth WGA nominee, “I, Tonya,” was replaced by “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” which had been ineligible for WGA consideration. “Get Out” won both awards. SEE 2019 Writers Guild Awards nominations: ‘BlacKkKlansman’ and ‘Roma’ in, ‘The Favourite’ was ineligible The 2017 WGA Awards nominees previewed only three of the Oscar contenders for Best Original Screenplay: “Hell or High Water,” “La La Land,”  “Manchester by the Sea.” The other two WGA nominees in this category — “Loving” and “Moonlight” — were deemed to be adaptations by the academy because they were inspired by a documentary and play respectively. “Moonlight” won with both the guild and the academy. One of the other two Best Original Screenplay Oscar nominees –“20th Century Women” — was snubbed by the guild while the other —  “The Lobster” — was ineligible. For the latter, co-writers Efthymis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos won Best Screenplay from the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn. for this deft satire but ran afoul of the restrictions imposed by the guild. Likewise, they were ineligible for consideration this year for the script of “The Killing of a Sacred Deer.” And the 2017 WGA roster of adapted screenplay nominees also foresaw only three of the five Oscar nominees: WGA champ “Arrival,” “Fences” and “Hidden Figures.” “Lion” couldn’t contend at the WGA awards as the film ran afoul of the requirement that foreign production companies prove their eligibility via a cumbersome process and “Moonlight” contended over in the original screenplay race at the guild. The WGA rounded out the category with “Deadpool” and “Nocturnal Animals.” PREDICT the Oscar winners now; change them until February 24 In 2016, “Spotlight” won Original Screenplay at the WGA before repeating at the Oscars. Of its WGA competition, only “Bridge of Spies” and “Straight Outta Compton” also contended at the Oscars with “Sicario” and “Trainwreck” replaced by the WGA-ineligible “Ex Machina” and “Inside Out.” Likewise, “The Big Short” won over the guild before prevailing with the academy in Adapted Screenplay. The other WGA nominees to make it to the Oscars were “Carol” and “The Martian” with “Steve Jobs” and “Trumbo” giving way to “Brooklyn” and “Room,” which had been ineligible with the guild. Of 2015’s five WGA nominees for Original Screenplay, four went on to lose at the Oscars to “Birdman,” which was WGA-ineligible: “Boyhood,” “Foxcatcher,” “The Grand Budapest Hotel” and “Nightcrawler.” WGA nominee “Whiplash” was bumped to the adapted race by the academy because it was based, in part, on a short film by writer/director Damien Chazelle. The Oscar winner for Adapted Screenplay, “The Imitation Game,” won at the WGA first against Oscar rival “American Sniper” and three scripts that were snubbed by the academy: “Gone Girl” “Guardians of the Galaxy,” and “Wild.” In 2014, all five of the WGA picks for Original Screenplay repeated at the Oscars, with “Her” winning both awards. The other nominees were: “American Hustle,” “Blue Jasmine,” “Dallas Buyers Club” and “Nebraska.” Only three of the WGA nominees for Adapted Screenplay — winner “Captain Phillips” as well as “Before Midnight” and “Wolf of Wall Street” — reaped Oscar bids; neither eventual Oscar champ “12 Years a Slave” nor “Philomena” were eligible for the guild prize. DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums In 2013, seven of the WGA nominees also reaped Oscar bids, including the adaptation of “Argo” which won both races. However, two of the eventual five Oscar nominees for Original Screenplay — the winner “Django Unchained” by Tarantino and “Amour” from writer-director Michael Haneke — were deemed ineligible by the WGA. “Zero Dark Thirty” won that race at the WGA and was among the five Oscar contenders. In 2012, only five of the 10 WGA nominees went on to contend at the Oscars. Three of the Oscar nominees for Original Screenplay — “The Artist,” “Margin Call” and “A Separation” — were ruled ineligible by the WGA as was one of the Adapted Screenplay Oscar contenders — “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.” Both of 2011’s WGA winners went on to repeat at the Oscars. “Midnight in Paris” won Woody Allen his fifth Original Screenplay award from the WGA while Alexander Payne claimed his third Adapted Screenplay prize for “The Descendants,” along with collaborators Nax Faxon and Jim Rash. In 2011, six of the 10 WGA nominees went on to compete at the Oscars. Aaron Sorkin won Adapted Screenplay at both kudos for “The Social Network.” He edged out the adapters of “127 Hours” and “True Grit” for both awards. However, two of his Oscar rivals — “Toy Story 3” and “Winter’s Bone” — were ineligible to contend at the WGAs. The eventual Oscar winner for Original Screenplay — “The King’s Speech” — was also ineligible for the WGA award as was another Oscar nominee — “Another Year.” Oscar contender Christopher Nolan won that prize for “Inception” edging out, among others, Oscar rivals “The Fighter” and “The Kids Are All Right.” SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions In 2010, the four WGA contenders deemed Oscar worthy were: WGA winner “The Hurt Locker” which repeated at the Oscars and “A Serious Man” on the original front and eventual champ “Precious” and WGA winner “Up in the Air” on the adapted side. Two of the eventual five Oscar nominees for Original Screenplay — “Inglorious Basterds” and “Up” — were ineligible for WGA consideration. Likewise, three of the Adapted Screenplay contenders — “District 9,” “An Education” and “In the Loop” — were left out of the running by the WGA. [predictions-widget id=1202776169] [pmc-related-link href=”https://www.goldderby.com/leagues/” type=”PREDICT” target=”_self”]the WGA Awards now; change them until February 17[/pmc-related-link] Be sure to make your WGA predictions so that Hollywood studio executives and top name filmmakers can see how their movies are faring in our odds. Keep changing your predictions until winners are announced on February 17. And join in the fierce debate over the 2019 WGA Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.
16 Feb 19
Long-Time Geek

Oscar Weekend is approaching and the time has come to give my predictions. I didn’t have time this year to view all the nominated movies but I believe that this will not impede my predictions. The complete list of nominations is available on the web site of the Awards (click here). Best Picture  Nominations: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian […]

16 Feb 19
Movie of the Week

I’ve finally seen all 8 nominated for best picture, along with a bunch of other Oscar contenders. Here’s how I think it will all go down: BEST PICTURE Who I want to win: Roma. Having said that, I really have a kind of 5-way tie in my mind. I absolutely loved BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Green […]

16 Feb 19
GoldDerby
Because of specific guild guidelines, Oscar front-runner “The Favourite” was ineligible for Best Original Screenplay at the Writers Guild Awards, so what will win in its place when the WGA hands out its prizes on February 17? According to the combined predictions of more than 1,000 Gold Derby users, the industry’s writers will be seeing “Green.” “Green Book” leads our predictions with odds of 10/3. That includes support from four of the Expert journalists we’ve polled from top media outlets: Edward Douglas (Weekend Warrior), Tariq Khan (Fox TV), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby). That makes sense given the industry’s admiration for the period film. It won the Producers Guild Award in January, and its screenplay also prevailed at the Golden Globes — though those prizes aren’t handed out by industry peers. [pmc-related-link href=”https://pages.email.goldderby.com/signup/” type=”SIGN UP” target=”_self”]for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions[/pmc-related-link] However, the film has come under fire specifically for alleged inaccuracies in the screenplay regarding the life experiences of one of its main characters, Don Shirley (played by Mahershala Ali). That doesn’t seem to have slowed the film down on the awards campaign trail, but the PGA Awards were a month ago, so maybe the backlash caught up to the film by the time Writers Guild voters marked their ballots. There are two other Oscar nominees in the WGA race, and of those two, “Vice” ranks second in our predictions with 39/10 odds. Two Experts are predicting it to win: Joyce Eng (Gold Derby) and Adnan Virk. But that film has proven divisive too, so maybe we’re underestimating “Roma,” which ranks third with 4/1 odds. Expert Susan King (Gold Derby) sure thinks we are; she’s betting on it to upset. And we know it has other industry groups on its side given its victories at the Directors Guild Awards and the BAFTAs. So which film do you think will be the “Favourite”-less favorite at the Writers Guild Awards? [predictions-widget id=1202776090] [pmc-related-link href=”https://www.goldderby.com/leagues/” type=”PREDICT” target=”_self”]the WGA Awards now; change them until February 17[/pmc-related-link] Be sure to make your WGA predictions so that Hollywood studio executives and top name filmmakers can see how their movies are faring in our odds. Keep changing your predictions until winners are announced on February 17. And join in the fierce debate over the 2019 WGA Awards taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our film forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.
16 Feb 19
GoldDerby
Turn out all it took was widespread condemnation of the plan to present four Oscars in the commercial breaks for the academy to blink and reverse course. The academy announced on Friday (Feb. 15) that all 24 competitive categories will be presented live on the Academy Awards next Sunday (Feb. 24). A terse statement issued on behalf of the officers of the board reads as follows: “The academy has heard the feedback from its membership regarding the Oscar presentation of four awards – Cinematography, Film Editing, Live Action Short, and Makeup and Hairstyling. All Academy Awards will be presented without edits, in our traditional format.” This move comes in response to the criticism levelled at the academy board of governors by many prominent filmmakers including a slew of Oscar winners (Damien Chazelle, Guillermo del Toro, Ang Lee, Quentin Tarantino) and both the American Society of Cinematographers and American Cinema Editors. The plan had been to present these four Oscars during the commercial breaks and then drop edited versions of the acceptance speeches into the telecast later in the evening. SEE 2019 Oscars predictions by experts: 7 of the 8 Best Picture nominees will win at the 91st Academy Awards This has worked well enough for the Tony Awards over the past few years. Prior to that, Broadway’s biggest honor had handed out its below-the-line awards in a separate ceremony that aired on PBS rather than on the main CBS telecast. The amount of time saved with this plan would have been minimal, perhaps totalling eight minutes. To move the awards along in a more time efficient manner, all the producers need to do is set aside seats in the front rows at the far sides of the Dolby Theater for nominees in the category about to be presented. This would eliminate the long walk/run/sprint that the likes of the Best Sound Mixing winners usually have to make from the back of the auditorium. PREDICT the Oscar winners now; change them until February 24 Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own 2019 Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on February 24. [predictions-widget id=1202617374] SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions
15 Feb 19
EW.com

All 24 categories will be announced live at the Oscars on Feb. 24, organizers said Friday, after dozens of filmmakers and actors criticized the decision to hand out four awards during the telecast’s commercial breaks in an attempt to keep the broadcast to three hours. “The Academy has heard the feedback from its membership regarding the […]

15 Feb 19
GoldDerby
“It’s a wild dream come true,” admits Yalitza Aparicio when asked about her Oscar nomination for “Roma.” The cinematic newcomer “never thought of acting” as a career before being cast as the central character in Alfonso Cuaron‘s intimate drama. Watch our exclusive video interview with Aparicio above. Aparicio stars in the film as Cleo, a maid working for a middle-class family in Mexico City during the 1970s. Cuaron based the film largely on his own experiences, creating Cleo as a version of his real-life caregiver. SEE Marina de Tavira Interview: ‘Roma’ Aparicio went to the audition — which was held in the small Oaxaca, Mexico, town where she grew up — almost by accident. She recalls, “I went with my sister,” who had responded to an open casting call. Though she’s not quite sure why the director chose to entrust the lead role to her, she believes it had to do with the similarities between her and the character, a nanny who dearly “loves” the four children in her care. Her acting debut was especially unique considering she never saw a finished script. “In the beginning, I thought this was normal,” she explains. “But it actually ended up helping, not having a script and shooting in chronological order, because I naturally learned about my character.” SEE Gabriela Rodriguez Interview: ‘Roma’ In addition to her Oscar nomination, Aparicio also competed at the Critics’ Choice Awards, where “Roma” won prizes for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Cinematography and Best Foreign Language Film. It repeated those victories at the BAFTAs, and it won additional awards for Best Director and Best Foreign Film at the Golden Globes. At the Oscars, “Roma” is tied with “The Favourite” as the most nominated film with 10 bids. It competes for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress (Marina de Tavira), Best Original Screenplay and more. If it wins Best Picture it will be the first foreign-language film and the first streaming film to win. And if Aparicio prevails she will be the first Latin-American woman to win Best Actress. PREDICT the Oscar winners now; change them until February 24 Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own 2019 Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on February 24. SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions
15 Feb 19
GoldDerby
Even if “Bohemian Rhapsody” doesn’t win Best Picture at the Oscars on February 24, it is already the biggest winner among the eight nominees in terms of profitability based on production budgets. This biopic of Freddie Mercury, the frontman for Queen, cost $50 million to make and it has taken in a whopping $850 million worldwide. Subtracting the production cost from the gross, and then dividing the remainder by that same production cost, yields a very rough estimate of the return on investment (ROI) or profit. The studio costs don’t account for every dollar spent as they don’t include marketing and Oscar campaigns while only about half of the takings end up back in the hands of the distributors. In the case of “Bohemian Rhapsody,” the math works out as follows: $850 million gross – $50 million production cost = $800 million, which is then divided by that same $50 million production cost for a ROI with a factor of 16 or 1,600% No other Best Picture contender comes close to matching that gross-to-cost ratio. Of the other seven nominees, “Black Panther” has made the most money, with a global box office haul of just under $1.35 billion. However, it cost in excess of $200 million to make, giving it a ROI of 5.75 (or 575%). SEE 2019 Oscars predictions by experts: 7 of the 8 Best Picture nominees will win at the 91st Academy Awards Two other films in the running for the top Academy Award have cracked the $100 million mark at the box office. “A Star is Born” cost $40 million to produce and has earned $420 million to date for an ROI of 9.5 (950%) while “Green Book” had a budget of $23 million and takings to date of $109 million for an ROI of 3.75 (375%). “BlacKkKlansman” was filmed for $15 million and has grossed just under $90 million (ROI: 5.00 or 500%) while “The Favourite” was also put together for $15 million and has receipts of $71 million and counting (ROI: 3.75 or 375%). The other two Best Picture nominees cost more to make than they have made: “Vice” is thought to have production costs of $60 million and has box office receipts of just under $57 million. And “Roma,” which cost $15 million to produce, had a limited theatrical release before streaming on Netflix and earned just under $4 million. PREDICT the Oscar winners now; change them until February 24 Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own 2019 Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before winners are announced on February 24. [predictions-widget id=1202617374] SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions