English News

18 Feb 19
What I think about when I run

I went to bed way to early last night, 6pm. Here is the updates for two days, one word: UNEVENTFUL. I stayed at home on Sunday and Monday (today). Achievement of the day: I finally made peace with moving to China (again), and started applying jobs in Shanghai. Another achievement: I donated 10% of the […]

18 Feb 19
Tianxing

Our new project named Archive Fever, at the beginning I researched what is archive: “archiive is a collection of historical records relating to a place, organization, or family.” (Cambridge Dictionary, 2019) I also researched the book named Archive Fever, I like the sentense that “The processing of archives is not a concept of how to deal […]

18 Feb 19
My Year Of Drinking Englishly

A quick review of My Year of Drinking Englishly and plans for the future, washed down with some lovely English sparkling wine from Sussex. Cheers!

18 Feb 19
Ace Newsroom Live

Today’s morning the EAF F-16s Fighter jets and UAVs conducted several airstrikes in northern Sinai. Today news from war on Daesh, ISIS in English from Somalia, Egypt, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria – isis.liveuamap.com http://bit.ly/2euGz0G

18 Feb 19
Emily's Travels

Greetings from Lux! I have lived in this sweet, sweet country for around three weeks now (feels like three years but also three minutes) and I’m almost completely adjusted life here. The past three weeks have been filled with some challenging moments, some moments of joy, and so many new experiences. Such as, flying. What […]

18 Feb 19
Whittier Daily News
Editor’s note: The following is from the Inside the Dodgers newsletter for Monday, Feb. 18. To receive the newsletter from MLB reporter J.P. Hoornstra in your inbox, sign up here. Ah, prospect lists. Merchants of hope, purveyors of false promise, dreamers of dreams waiting to be broken. Now that the major national 2019 prospect lists are in, The Ringer did a deep dive on an emerging trend: fewer pitchers have been ranked among the top 10 annually since 2014 than ever before. Young pitchers offer less a dependable return on investment than position players. Their futures are less guaranteed. Prospect rankers aren’t handing down these edicts from Baseball Asgard. They’re merely responding to the reality of pitchers’ shortened major-league careers. I tried coming up with a quick and dirty way to quantify this concept. It’s hard. Most academic studies about major league pitchers’ aging curves that I could find (with some quick Googling) are more than five years old. So here’s a stat that at least points at the broad trend. If you look at the top seasons for pitchers 30 and older with at least 1 bWAR since 1990, they’re clustered in a five-year span from 1998-2002. And if you look at the top five seasons for pitchers age 20-29 with at least 1 bWAR since 1990, they’re all clustered from 2012-17. Here’s what that looks like in a table: Seasons with most 1+WAR pitchers, age 20-29 (since 1990) 1. 2013 1302. 2012 1303. 2015 1224. 2014 1225. 2017 1176. 2016 114 Seasons with most 1+WAR pitchers, age 30 and older (since 1990) 1. 1998 822. 2000 793. 1999 794. 2001 775. 2002 75 In plain English: you could once reasonably project a talented young pitcher to still be worth one win by the time he reached age 30. Twenty years ago, every team had 2 or 3 examples on its own roster to reinforce this projection. Now, teams can more reliably expect to reap at least 1 win from their 20-something pitchers. It’s less reasonable to expect 1-win production from that pitcher into his 30s. That’s not empirical proof that pitchers’ careers are over earlier, but it sure looks that way. If nothing else, a pitcher’s productive years seem to be ending sooner. If you’re in the business of ranking prospects, what do you do with this information? When comparing two young pitchers with similar skill sets, do you favor the pitcher with better indicators of long-term health? It sounds like this was part of J.J. Cooper’s thought process as he ranked prospects for Baseball America. Wrote Ben Lindbergh: Cooper says that the last straw for him when it came to highly placed pitching prospects was Dodgers southpaw Julio Urías, who appeared on BA top 100 lists three times, topping out at number 4 in 2016. Urías made the majors that May at age 19, but he missed most of the 2017 and 2018 seasons after undergoing anterior capsule surgery. The lefty, who returned late last year to pitch out of the bullpen, won’t turn 23 until August, but the shoulder is still a concern. “He was a near-perfect pitching prospect: extremely advanced for his age, excellent stuff, and solid control,” Cooper says. “And the Dodgers had gone far out of their way to make sure he was never over-worked. And he still broke down with a serious injury that will likely affect his ability to meet his very lofty ceiling. Even the riskier top hitting prospects like Yoán Moncada still are likely to have lengthy, productive careers. If you’re a fan, what do you do with this information – particularly when every list ranks outfielder Alex Verdugo and/or catcher Keibert Ruiz higher than the Dodgers’ top pitching prospect, Dustin May? I don’t think there’s one way to answer that question. Here are a few thoughts. Remember that prospect lists are a like snapshot of where a player’s potential resides in a given moment. These snapshots don’t include MRI images. Some prospect lists might incorporate knowledge gleaned from Motus sleeve readings on young pitchers, but my hunch is that such information is limited at best in 2019. I wouldn’t expect that every prospect ranker can accurately “handicap” one young pitcher’s potential for injury compared to another just yet. So if a high-upside pitcher like May is being ranked lower than a high-floor position player like Lux – as ESPN and Baseball America did – remember that these floor/ceiling error bars exist. The error bars are bigger for pitchers than position players, and the truth usually lies somewhere in the middle. Urías has a chance to do something important here, too. His injury (a torn anterior capsule in his left shoulder) is relatively rare, especially for a 21-year-old. That makes his potential for recovery harder to prognosticate. Because pitchers who undergo this surgery are typically older, and have accompanying damage to their rotator cuff or labrum, direct comparisons to other AC surgery patients are unfair. There are good reasons to believe Urías will come back strong, including his performance in 10 games to end last season. If Urías was a big reason why pitching prospect rankings are being depressed, he can either validate or invalidate the idea that such a serious injury should downgrade the ranking of future pitching prospects. The Dodgers’ philosophy of limiting their pitchers’ innings seems to be designed with the short term in mind. But it might help extend those pitchers’ productive years in the long run, too. Maybe that means Dustin May’s peak has a chance to last longer than a similarly talented pitcher in another organization. Who knows. Prospect rankings are all a big guessing game and this is an interesting time for those floor/ceiling error bars. -J.P. Sign up for the Inside the Dodgers newsletter. [related_articles location=”left” show_article_date=”false” article_type=”automatic-primary-section”]
18 Feb 19
Daily News
Editor’s note: The following is from the Inside the Dodgers newsletter for Monday, Feb. 18. To receive the newsletter from MLB reporter J.P. Hoornstra in your inbox, sign up here. Ah, prospect lists. Merchants of hope, purveyors of false promise, dreamers of dreams waiting to be broken. Now that the major national 2019 prospect lists are in, The Ringer did a deep dive on an emerging trend: fewer pitchers have been ranked among the top 10 annually since 2014 than ever before. Young pitchers offer less a dependable return on investment than position players. Their futures are less guaranteed. Prospect rankers aren’t handing down these edicts from Baseball Asgard. They’re merely responding to the reality of pitchers’ shortened major-league careers. I tried coming up with a quick and dirty way to quantify this concept. It’s hard. Most academic studies about major league pitchers’ aging curves that I could find (with some quick Googling) are more than five years old. So here’s a stat that at least points at the broad trend. If you look at the top seasons for pitchers 30 and older with at least 1 bWAR since 1990, they’re clustered in a five-year span from 1998-2002. And if you look at the top five seasons for pitchers age 20-29 with at least 1 bWAR since 1990, they’re all clustered from 2012-17. Here’s what that looks like in a table: Seasons with most 1+WAR pitchers, age 20-29 (since 1990) 1. 2013 1302. 2012 1303. 2015 1224. 2014 1225. 2017 1176. 2016 114 Seasons with most 1+WAR pitchers, age 30 and older (since 1990) 1. 1998 822. 2000 793. 1999 794. 2001 775. 2002 75 In plain English: you could once reasonably project a talented young pitcher to still be worth one win by the time he reached age 30. Twenty years ago, every team had 2 or 3 examples on its own roster to reinforce this projection. Now, teams can more reliably expect to reap at least 1 win from their 20-something pitchers. It’s less reasonable to expect 1-win production from that pitcher into his 30s. That’s not empirical proof that pitchers’ careers are over earlier, but it sure looks that way. If nothing else, a pitcher’s productive years seem to be ending sooner. If you’re in the business of ranking prospects, what do you do with this information? When comparing two young pitchers with similar skill sets, do you favor the pitcher with better indicators of long-term health? It sounds like this was part of J.J. Cooper’s thought process as he ranked prospects for Baseball America. Wrote Ben Lindbergh: Cooper says that the last straw for him when it came to highly placed pitching prospects was Dodgers southpaw Julio Urías, who appeared on BA top 100 lists three times, topping out at number 4 in 2016. Urías made the majors that May at age 19, but he missed most of the 2017 and 2018 seasons after undergoing anterior capsule surgery. The lefty, who returned late last year to pitch out of the bullpen, won’t turn 23 until August, but the shoulder is still a concern. “He was a near-perfect pitching prospect: extremely advanced for his age, excellent stuff, and solid control,” Cooper says. “And the Dodgers had gone far out of their way to make sure he was never over-worked. And he still broke down with a serious injury that will likely affect his ability to meet his very lofty ceiling. Even the riskier top hitting prospects like Yoán Moncada still are likely to have lengthy, productive careers. If you’re a fan, what do you do with this information – particularly when every list ranks outfielder Alex Verdugo and/or catcher Keibert Ruiz higher than the Dodgers’ top pitching prospect, Dustin May? I don’t think there’s one way to answer that question. Here are a few thoughts. Remember that prospect lists are a like snapshot of where a player’s potential resides in a given moment. These snapshots don’t include MRI images. Some prospect lists might incorporate knowledge gleaned from Motus sleeve readings on young pitchers, but my hunch is that such information is limited at best in 2019. I wouldn’t expect that every prospect ranker can accurately “handicap” one young pitcher’s potential for injury compared to another just yet. So if a high-upside pitcher like May is being ranked lower than a high-floor position player like Lux – as ESPN and Baseball America did – remember that these floor/ceiling error bars exist. The error bars are bigger for pitchers than position players, and the truth usually lies somewhere in the middle. Urías has a chance to do something important here, too. His injury (a torn anterior capsule in his left shoulder) is relatively rare, especially for a 21-year-old. That makes his potential for recovery harder to prognosticate. Because pitchers who undergo this surgery are typically older, and have accompanying damage to their rotator cuff or labrum, direct comparisons to other AC surgery patients are unfair. There are good reasons to believe Urías will come back strong, including his performance in 10 games to end last season. If Urías was a big reason why pitching prospect rankings are being depressed, he can either validate or invalidate the idea that such a serious injury should downgrade the ranking of future pitching prospects. The Dodgers’ philosophy of limiting their pitchers’ innings seems to be designed with the short term in mind. But it might help extend those pitchers’ productive years in the long run, too. Maybe that means Dustin May’s peak has a chance to last longer than a similarly talented pitcher in another organization. Who knows. Prospect rankings are all a big guessing game and this is an interesting time for those floor/ceiling error bars. -J.P. Sign up for the Inside the Dodgers newsletter. [related_articles location=”left” show_article_date=”false” article_type=”automatic-primary-section”]
18 Feb 19
Pasadena Star News
Editor’s note: The following is from the Inside the Dodgers newsletter for Monday, Feb. 18. To receive the newsletter from MLB reporter J.P. Hoornstra in your inbox, sign up here. Ah, prospect lists. Merchants of hope, purveyors of false promise, dreamers of dreams waiting to be broken. Now that the major national 2019 prospect lists are in, The Ringer did a deep dive on an emerging trend: fewer pitchers have been ranked among the top 10 annually since 2014 than ever before. Young pitchers offer less a dependable return on investment than position players. Their futures are less guaranteed. Prospect rankers aren’t handing down these edicts from Baseball Asgard. They’re merely responding to the reality of pitchers’ shortened major-league careers. I tried coming up with a quick and dirty way to quantify this concept. It’s hard. Most academic studies about major league pitchers’ aging curves that I could find (with some quick Googling) are more than five years old. So here’s a stat that at least points at the broad trend. If you look at the top seasons for pitchers 30 and older with at least 1 bWAR since 1990, they’re clustered in a five-year span from 1998-2002. And if you look at the top five seasons for pitchers age 20-29 with at least 1 bWAR since 1990, they’re all clustered from 2012-17. Here’s what that looks like in a table: Seasons with most 1+WAR pitchers, age 20-29 (since 1990) 1. 2013 1302. 2012 1303. 2015 1224. 2014 1225. 2017 1176. 2016 114 Seasons with most 1+WAR pitchers, age 30 and older (since 1990) 1. 1998 822. 2000 793. 1999 794. 2001 775. 2002 75 In plain English: you could once reasonably project a talented young pitcher to still be worth one win by the time he reached age 30. Twenty years ago, every team had 2 or 3 examples on its own roster to reinforce this projection. Now, teams can more reliably expect to reap at least 1 win from their 20-something pitchers. It’s less reasonable to expect 1-win production from that pitcher into his 30s. That’s not empirical proof that pitchers’ careers are over earlier, but it sure looks that way. If nothing else, a pitcher’s productive years seem to be ending sooner. If you’re in the business of ranking prospects, what do you do with this information? When comparing two young pitchers with similar skill sets, do you favor the pitcher with better indicators of long-term health? It sounds like this was part of J.J. Cooper’s thought process as he ranked prospects for Baseball America. Wrote Ben Lindbergh: Cooper says that the last straw for him when it came to highly placed pitching prospects was Dodgers southpaw Julio Urías, who appeared on BA top 100 lists three times, topping out at number 4 in 2016. Urías made the majors that May at age 19, but he missed most of the 2017 and 2018 seasons after undergoing anterior capsule surgery. The lefty, who returned late last year to pitch out of the bullpen, won’t turn 23 until August, but the shoulder is still a concern. “He was a near-perfect pitching prospect: extremely advanced for his age, excellent stuff, and solid control,” Cooper says. “And the Dodgers had gone far out of their way to make sure he was never over-worked. And he still broke down with a serious injury that will likely affect his ability to meet his very lofty ceiling. Even the riskier top hitting prospects like Yoán Moncada still are likely to have lengthy, productive careers. If you’re a fan, what do you do with this information – particularly when every list ranks outfielder Alex Verdugo and/or catcher Keibert Ruiz higher than the Dodgers’ top pitching prospect, Dustin May? I don’t think there’s one way to answer that question. Here are a few thoughts. Remember that prospect lists are a like snapshot of where a player’s potential resides in a given moment. These snapshots don’t include MRI images. Some prospect lists might incorporate knowledge gleaned from Motus sleeve readings on young pitchers, but my hunch is that such information is limited at best in 2019. I wouldn’t expect that every prospect ranker can accurately “handicap” one young pitcher’s potential for injury compared to another just yet. So if a high-upside pitcher like May is being ranked lower than a high-floor position player like Lux – as ESPN and Baseball America did – remember that these floor/ceiling error bars exist. The error bars are bigger for pitchers than position players, and the truth usually lies somewhere in the middle. Urías has a chance to do something important here, too. His injury (a torn anterior capsule in his left shoulder) is relatively rare, especially for a 21-year-old. That makes his potential for recovery harder to prognosticate. Because pitchers who undergo this surgery are typically older, and have accompanying damage to their rotator cuff or labrum, direct comparisons to other AC surgery patients are unfair. There are good reasons to believe Urías will come back strong, including his performance in 10 games to end last season. If Urías was a big reason why pitching prospect rankings are being depressed, he can either validate or invalidate the idea that such a serious injury should downgrade the ranking of future pitching prospects. The Dodgers’ philosophy of limiting their pitchers’ innings seems to be designed with the short term in mind. But it might help extend those pitchers’ productive years in the long run, too. Maybe that means Dustin May’s peak has a chance to last longer than a similarly talented pitcher in another organization. Who knows. Prospect rankings are all a big guessing game and this is an interesting time for those floor/ceiling error bars. -J.P. Sign up for the Inside the Dodgers newsletter. [related_articles location=”left” show_article_date=”false” article_type=”automatic-primary-section”]
18 Feb 19
Meaning and Truth

I can’t believe I haven’t written a blog post since last July. Maybe it’s because I’ve had very little in the way of new thoughts or experiences to inspire me to write. Life continues to bring the same daily juxtaposition of joyfest and hellhole, and its demands leave me little room for reflection anyhow. My […]

18 Feb 19
Pentabook

  The Story of the Stone by Cao Xueqin (in five volumes, translated by David Hawkes) First published: 1791   “The Story of the Stone” (c. 1760) is one of the greatest novels of Chinese literature. The first part of the story, The Golden Days, begins the tale of Bao-yu, a gentle young boy who prefers […]

18 Feb 19
Latest Football News

Paul Pogba and Ander Herrera secured Man United's place in the FA Cup quarterfinals as Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's side knocked out 2018 winners Chelsea. ESPN FC's Craig Burley says Chelsea manager Maurizio Sarri looks over matched in the Premier League, after yet another lackluster performance from the club. Maurizio Sarri said he was not worried […]

18 Feb 19
dog tales and trails

What a journey it has been too!  Thinking back to how I first connected with Kathy of Homeward Bound Rescue via email when I discovered there was a rescue in my town for English Bulldogs.  And how that translated to going to the HBR event at the snowmobile club in Port Perry.  I remember being […]

18 Feb 19
Nads knows

So here we are, 7 whole days in Auckland and I am finally getting round to writing my second post. Mind you it’s been 3 weeks now, so I am going to do my best to cover what I remember.  We were so lucky and spoilt to have Jess, a colleague turned mega babe friend […]

18 Feb 19
Ace Newsroom Live

Today’s morning the EAF F-16s Fighter jets and UAVs conducted several airstrikes in northern Sinai. Today news from war on Daesh, ISIS in English from Somalia, Egypt, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria – isis.liveuamap.com http://bit.ly/2euGz0G